TRACK OFFERS

Superior real-market research, thorough and thoughtful analysis, and a complete suite of premium financial tools tailored to the needs of the serious institutional and individual investor.

If you have an institutional code, click here

forgot your password?
ALREADY REGISTERED?  LOG IN:
TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK MAY IDEA DINNER – AWKWARD OPTIMISM

We have all had those moments of awkwardness when we are all dressed up and have no where to go. Markets have that feeling this month and that becomes clear with the drop in volatility and the bubbling up of equities. The Track May Idea Dinner brought together an great group of portfolio managers, economists, analysts and traders to discuss the outlook for the summer and beyond. There were two themes that predominated the May dinner – bullish outlooks for risk assets – described as awkward optimism and a determined no surprises principle from politicians and policy makers providing the fuel for such low volatility, long carry and positive equity trades. The discussion was broad ranging but unlike other dinners in 2017 there was a strong consensus to own risk regardless of the headlines.

MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – ANXIETY?

Markets have had little sign of anxiety this month despite hair-raising horrors from the Manchester terror tragedy to the Trump FBI Comey firing to North Korea missile testings. But overnight, headlines did matter – risk is clearly off - and that nervous twitch showed up particularly in GBP as lower oil prices pushed down yields everywhere making reflation less sure and as the UK election polls narrowed again with Labour now 5% behind the UK May Conservatives. This is in sharp contrast to polls for French President Macron showing he seems likely to get an absolute majority in parliament. Egypt suffers another terror attack as gunman kill over 20 Christians on a bus. The G7 meeting starts with many in Europe nervous about Trump as unified terror response and migration policy may fail on clearly conflicting trade interests and FX. On the economic front - the Japanese CPI headlines were mixed and don’t really inspire anyone to think that the BOJ will be successful in its 2% target anytime soon. JPY gains followed with risk-off moods. The Italian data while usually not a big market mover remind us all of how confidence matters and could be the next vulnerability to trading markets as the hard data remains soft and the better soft data (ie consumer and business confidence) could fall hard – with all eyes on the US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment today to reflect the new Trump reality of a less sure agenda thanks to FBI Russian investigations, a muddled tax reform push and CBO induced headwinds on repealing and replacing healthcare. Whether any of this matters and provokes more anxiety will be the focus today and likely for the next 2 weeks into the FOMC June decision. Data dependency remains part of policy as politicians seem unable to counter easy money dominance as the key lever.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

HARD BREXIT MATHS – WALKING AWAY

The UK’s NIESR estimate the bill for Hard Brexit to the UK at EUR 66bln I guesstimate the cost of Hard Brexit to the EU at EUR 62bln Legal experts for both sides suggest UK obligations cease on Brexit A Free-trade deal with the EU may not begin until after March 2019

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

TRACKING THE WHITE HOUSE TAX PLAN

The White House Tax Plan was announced today at 1.30pm ET. The market reaction was almost instant - selling USD, buying bonds, selling stocks on the edge. We close with 0.6% gains lost into the close with S&P500 flat. We close US 10Y bonds off 3bps to 2.30% - holding the lower line for range trading. The EUR fell to 1.0856 and bounced after the tax plan to close here 1.0910. Markets see this plan as net revenue neutral and not as pro-growth as hoped. This maybe a knee-jerk buying of the rumor and selling of the fact trade more than smart analysis. The details of the plan are just too light to know right now and as both Cohen and Mnuchin made clear in their press conference, talk in May with Congress will get to the heart of many of the key concerns about revenue. So simply put - its too early to tell - but for one simple and important point. Capital flows are designed to encourage money abroad to come home and for investments to rise in the US - making this a USD positive policy in the longer-term.

X

MEMBERSHIP LEVELS AND BENEFITS

PREMIUM
SUBSCRIPTION
BASIC
SUBSCRIPTION
FREE
REGISTRATION
ACCESS TO UP TO 3 TRACK.COM PREMIER EVENTS PER YEAR ***

Track.com's Premier Events include Idea Breakfasts, Idea Lunches, and Idea Dinners held in our New York offices and in other cities throughout the world. These are in-person events, including regular dinners, CEO breakfasts, and regional lunches.

X
ACCESS TO TRACK.COM CONFERENCE CALLS AND WEBINARS

Track.com hosts regular conference calls and webinars. Recordings are made available after each, in a podcast-like format.

X
X
THOUGHT PIECE

Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

X
TRADE IDEAS

Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

X
MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

X X
OBSERVATION

Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

X
X
X
  • ABILITY TO CONTACT AUTHORS
  • PDF ATTACHMENTS WITH NEW ARTICLE ALERTS
X
X
  • ABILITY TO COMMENT ON ARTICLES
  • SAVE ARTICLES FOR LATER READING
  • TRACK ARTICLES & RECEIVE ALERTS
X
X
X
$499.00
PER MONTH
$99.00
PER MONTH
FREE!

READY TO SUBSCRIBE? Select the level that best suits your needs.

If you have an institutional code, click here

PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION BASIC SUBSCRIPTION * FREE REGISTRATION **

* Includes a two-week trial of the Premium subscription

** Includes a two-week trial of the Premium subscription, followed by a one-week trial of the Basic subscription

*** Attendance at events is limited, and requests to attend will generally be handled on a first-come first-serve basis, with the Track.com team managing attendance in order to ensure the best possible experience for participants.