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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

FINANCIAL MARKET PERSPECTIVES - SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

Commodities and U.S. equities rallied Wednesday while Treasuries weakened modestly after Deutsche Bank shares strengthened and OPEC sources said the group agreed to a surprise output cut, effective in November.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK - BALANCED?

The balance of risks in the last week were even, while the oddness of the present condition will likely leave markets unsettled next week. We are stuck watching the data along with all the central bankers, like waiting for the dice to drop, with odds and evens. The focus in the week ahead will be on the reaction functions of central bankers to data from the German IFO, jobs and CPI to the US durable goods and PCE price deflator. There isn’t a lot of room for trading in month end without paying attention the monthly trend which compressed volatility and continued the chase for yield. The biggest winner in September was the emerging markets again – and the balanced game of central bankers continues to push the well-worn global convergence trade. This time the focus on the USD weakness is less sure-footed with the FOMC hawkishly holding and the BOJ continuing its QE but with some reverse twists. No one is sure how the dice will really fall in the next quarter but that clearly is the driving force for the markets as waiting for the payout attracts more than those that want to cash out and leave the table.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

DUDA PRAISES INTERNATIONAL SUCCESS, BUT PROBLEMS PERSIST AT HOME

Last Monday, Polish President Andrzej Duda spoke in New York at an event sponsored by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Duda underscored the importance of the American-Polish partnership on security, energy, and transatlantic economic relations. As the sixth-largest economy in Europe, the only EU country to escape recession during the recent European debt crisis, and one of America’s strongest NATO allies, the political and economic success of Poland was portrayed as critical to the Central European region and to America’s interests abroad.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK SEPTEMBER IDEA DINNER - THE WAITING GAME

The cost of waiting to normalize rates for the FOMC became less than the risks to global financial stability and that makes 2016 much like 2015 for investors as we all wait for the Chair of the Federal Reserve to hike rates perhaps now in December. This dominated the discussion at the latest Track Idea dinner where a raucous group of investors, traders, analysts and academics discussed the central market themes, their best trades and their worst fears. If there was one key take away, it was in the doubt that the ability for central bankers everywhere to manipulate markets will not last forever. This was a dinner about risks ahead even as markets digested the day of inaction positivity with stocks and commodities and bonds all higher and the USD lower. The fear of a liquidity trap has been transformed in the US to a fear of a missed opportunity, coyness takes time and to many time is money. The opportunity to normalize rates is limited with the risk of a policy mistake substantial. The dramatic drop in potential output, in rate hike expectations and in the long-term rate from the Fed dot plot makes clear that the world is still very different than in 2007. In the 10 years passed, the limits of monetary policy may have been reached making the present patience even more uncomfortable to investors.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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