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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE EARLY MORNING TRACK - TOO QUIET?

If you just watched the US and Asian Markets you would say we had a quietly strong start to Monday because the weekend was good. That is to say that volatility abates when stocks go up. There is a hangover from last week but its been forgotten in the haze. The same isn’t true for Europe. They had another bad weekend full of worry that more won’t be enough. Confidence is a precious commodity these days and calm isn’t an indication of safe but rather glum acceptance that the worst case may be yet unfolding in Europe. The German-Franco summit today isn’t likely to resolve the drop in French competitiveness. The bond selling of OATs lat week stung but reverse back to core today as equities are the main story. Flows into Europe in August were significant and the unwind in October continues. The big bounce back in Asia has been expected by many with Japan again the favorite - with JPY looking ready for 108 rather than 105. But the politics there aren’t as rosy nor is the economy with the BOJ regional survey stepping down another notch and the Abe cabinet losing two ministers over the election law disputes. In the US - the last chance to hear from Fed speakers is today into the FOMC blackout period ahead of next week’s meeting. Rosengren over the weekend was dovish as usual. NABE survey was strong but on the edges there is some sign of less sales 42 from 45% and less profits 16% from 25%. All this seems unlikely to matter much given the focus of price action revolves around Europe again with the compare and contrast entirely upon the EUR. Consolidation may seem calm but merely allows a chance to regroup for the next big move.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK - BIG E

Will the volatility and purgative selling of risk assets chance the course of the FOMC or the BOE? Will it force the RBA to rethink a rate cut and will it add to the push for even more from the ECB, BOJ and China? These remain the key questions for the week ahead. Energy or Ebola or Europe = Easing? Those are the drivers last week and are likely to remain so but we may also add in the focus to Earnings in this week ahead. The earnings calls and outlooks from the US are telling in what they mentioned as dragging down expectations – Europe and the USD take the lead but fears about Russia and the Ukraine continue along with China growth and ISIS. The role of Ebola was minimal. Maybe we will find some other E-words in the next week to add to the list or maybe we are finished with the Big-E and set to move onto another season. Either way, the markets aren’t looking comfortable with the volatility inherent in transitions.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH SEPTEMBER IDEA DINNER – ROSH HASHANAH

Last week, Track hosted its September Idea Dinner last week, which brought together an assortment of analysts, traders, and fund managers. The dinner took place during “Rosh Hashanah”, the Jewish New Year’s celebration that literally translates to “head of the year.” As the Hebrew calendar welcomed in the year 5775, those at the dinner discussed how 2014 was coming to a head. The attitude in the room was subtly fatigued—most of those present seemed tired of the paradigms of 2014 (and prior years), the difficult-to-trade low volatility; continued accommodative policy (and still-lingering fears of a liquidity trap); the feeling that the 2008 crisis has never been fully resolved in the actual world economies—and the threat that the next crisis could already be in sight. This report summarizes the major themes, trades, and market fears discussed at that dinner.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

THE US $ AS A STORE OF VALUE

As the US economic recovery continues to gather momentum, what are the prospects for the US$ versus its principal trading partners? This is key to determining how swiftly and to what degree the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary conditions.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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