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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – SUN WARNINGS - GERMAN IFO,GSK BETTER, NZ TRADE BETTER, GREEK DEAL FINALLY

Wear your sunscreen. Funny that there are no images of Janet Yellen wearing sunglasses on the web but plenty of her in the dark. The key issue for the week continues to be if the FOMC can raise rates in June or July and not bother the world. The answer after the S&P500 broke its 55-day m.a. yesterday is a resounding “yes.” The boisterous mood for risk continues today albeit with warnings from China on leverage, from ECB speakers Knott and Villeroy on the limitations of monetary policy, from S&P on the cost of Brexit threatening UK AAA and from the IMF on the Greek debt deal conditions. Warnings are like telling your kids to wear sunscreen – not likely to happen unless you grab them and put the stuff on yourself. This is the way markets move in quiet periods waiting for bigger news. The rally up in bonds in Europe is at odds with the overall equity boom and oil bounce as it tries $50 bbl again. The ability for everyone to be happy – fixed income, FX, equities – all that requires the cash on the sidelines to continue to be nervously put back to work – chasing the will of central bankers to take risk rather than sunscreen. The JPY is the currency to watch given the G7 upcoming and the doubts about debt deflation there. 110.70 is the pivot to watch today – like 2055 S&P500 yesterday.

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Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK – BLOOM IS OFF THE ROSE? G7 FINMIN DON’T ISSUE STATEMENT, US LEW WARNS ON JPY INTERVENTION, AUSTRIA SET FOR FAR-RIGHT PRESIDENT, GREECE MORE AUSTERITY.

The bloom is off the rose. It’s not even summer yet and the rally up in risk has been confused by the trading in May – suggesting that the June FOMC rate hike fears are difficult to balance against the present equation for global growth. There is a simple equation for growth dependent on population growth and productivity growth – but it’s not always been that way and perhaps this is the historical lesson to remember as we tend to our portfolios and gardens. In order to keep the blooms on the rose going you need water, weather and a sharp knife to cut the dying flowers. This maybe good advice for investors too as they look to balance their asset holding - equities, bonds, FX and commodities are all in chop rather than trend mode in May - suggesting the only way to hold on to returns is to be aggressive in gardening. The news last week was grim for China, better for Japan, worse for Europe, mixed for the US. This divergence adds to fears that go-your-own- way policies continue to evolve and you get less agreement as to the path forward. The G7 found this out this weekend as both the US and Japan are clearly at odds with each other over the path of the JPY. The EU politicians are learning that the equation on growth is more difficult than normal as well given the Austria election and the Greek votes this weekend. Migration isn’t the simple answer that economic models suggest. The path in the week ahead is going to be about the data on 2Q growth and the base from 1Q GDP mixed with the policy pronouncements from central bankers as they absorb the economic data. Forecasts and economic equations remain key to trading markets but sometimes the process of trading has its own influence in the way the world works – so it goes for the S&P500 into the next week as it absorbs the threat of a June or July FOMC hike.

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THE LEVEE GONNA BREAK - DEBT, DEMOGRAPHICS, PRODUCTIVITY AND FINANCIALIZATION

Debt and leverage since the financial crisis has continued to rise Demographics trends in developed countries are not supportive of economic growth Productivity growth has been rising much slower since the Great Recession Financialization of the global economy has amplified the business cycle

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TRACK RESEARCH MAY IDEA DINNER – TURNING THE TAP

While March and April balanced out the fears of January and February, the tie-breaker for May is still about central bank policy and the omnipotence of monetary policy to fix all ills from finance to deflation. This all drives the path to June and the FOMC “live” meeting just ahead of the UK referendum on remaining in the European Union. The fear of turning the tap was the backdrop for another Track Idea Dinner with many of the same themes and worries as started the year but with some twists – as the liquidity from the FOMC not raising in March and the Chinese re-leveraging in the first quarter appears to be less sustainable into the second quarter. The usual mix of analysts, economists, investors, traders and financiers joined together for the May Track Idea dinner and came up with some different answers – namely that the tap is turning on liquidity with some ugly implications for the summer ahead.

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