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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – REGIME SHIFT

The word “inauguration” comes from French via Latin literally meaning “installment under good omens.” In ancient times, this was the ceremony that brought the sanction of the gods to something decreed by man. An augur was a priest who used natural signs – particularly of birds – to portend the divine approval of potential actions. Odd that we use this word every four years in the United States, odder still that it matters as much now but for the fact that most see the inauguration of a New President as a regime-shift, a moment when all previous assumptions about policy and the world have to be reconsidered. The election of Trump in the US, like Brexit in the UK, is a change in the course of globalization and the push for national advantage over collective gain. This is the battle of stability over unfettered capitalism where politics push for growth and welcome inflation after 7 years of QE and negative real rates. The debate is one about the role of government, the role of trade and the value of money. Overnight and in the day ahead this clash will be come even more clear as the market listened to FOMC Chair Yellen push for her apolitical discretion in monetary policy while China pushed for Trump to act more Presidential and see China as more a partner. Overnight, the focus was on China, which provided better-than-expected results, and saw the PBOC make a “temporary” reserve ratio cut to add funding for the New Year Holiday. This follows the CNY 1.13trn additional liquidity they added this week. Policy whether fiscal or monetary matters most to markets now and we have seen a regime shift from the asset inflation linked to QE world of the last 7 years. This comes out most clearly in the chart of US rates – and that is the key driver and risk for the day as we break out with Yellen and maybe extend with Trump into a new brave world.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

EQUITY VALUATION IN A DE-GLOBALISING WORLD

The Federal Reserve will raise rates in the coming year The positive Yield Gap will vanish but equity markets should still rise After an eight year bull market equity markets are vulnerable to negative shocks A value based investment approach is to be favoured even in the current environment

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

THE TRACK 2017 OUTLOOK – BEING PRESENT

The New Year starts with hope, something that generally proves toxic to traders and investors over the longer-term, but sets the momentum and animal spirits in the present. In fact, markets have become more “present” and less in the “past,” ready to believe this time is different. The sharp contrast of trading from January 2016 to December 2016 is a lesson to be learned. The list of concerns shifted from China and debt to US rate divergence to Brexit to the US election with the worst-case scenarios playing out in surprising ways. This maybe even more important as we start the Chinese New Year of the Fire Rooster – where appearances, hard-work, loyalty and punctuality matter more than the Monkey-like uncertainty of the ballot box. The lessons of expecting to be surprised in 2016 make it hard to see 2017 as anything but one filled with skeptics - where investors will respond only to real actions from politicians and central bankers, where even the worst case political outcomes will require actions to matter – where it will take Le Pen not just winning but calling for an EU referendum to matter. Forward guidance and polling won’t hold much sway to the real ballot box and actual policy shifts from the newly elected leaders. However, one must respect the calendar of political events in 2017 and understand the fear that it will entail – particularly for Europe.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK – AND SHE WAS

Goodbye 2016, we hardly knew you. Hello 2017. The markets are open and ready for business – almost. Much of the world was shut January 2 for a holiday, including the US. The start of 2017 was feeble, like the close on December 30th, but in that many find solace as they see risk in the ebullient mood from November 8th onwards. The hope for a pull back to buy stocks, sell bonds and pick up some cheap USD hold outs the hope for a larger trend into the new year. For many, the end of 2016 was a blessing as the toll of geopolitical change and fear didn’t relate to the markets. For others there was a transcendence about the fray of doubt and economic divergence into something bigger – like the girl tripping in Baltimore next to the Yoo-Hoo factory. The end of the bond market rally, the extension of the stock market rally, the end of Fed easy money and the beginning of an extended USD rally. The US dollar rally in 2016 was the 4th year in a row suggesting something is very different in the world. No one starts a new year without hope and best wishes and we expect the reality of Dec 29 to fade quickly back to the joy of January 3.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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