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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK - BLIZZARDS

They only just started to name Blizzards - and perhaps that is the lesson of the day - naming something bad makes it worse but contains the fear of the event, the one facing the US NorthEast from NYC to Boston is called Juno and its likely to be a mess with 20-40 hours of snow set to fall today and tomorrow with high winds, dropping up to 3 feet of snow between New York and Boston. This is a blizzard pure and simple. The only major news for Monday is the Greek election - a blizzard in its own way - as Syriza takes 149 seats and forms a coalition with ANEL to gain over the 151 majority. He didn’t build out a To Potami coalition suggesting a harder line against the EU. The anti-austerity party has raised fears of a Greek exit in Europe but you can’t see it in the price action today. In fact the volatility of all markets remains high enough to obscure the safety of the easy trends. The low in the EUR was 1.1098 - breaking the 1.11 barrier - but bouncing into Europe with ECB Coeure warning that lower EUR helps but stability also matters. The speed bump for how fast the EUR/USD can fall will show up in odd places - mostly crosses in Europe like the GBP, SEK, CHF and NOK. But the speed and trajectory of change in FX rates is a key factor for global bonds and equities now. While markets are waiting for US 4Q earnings today and in the week week with over 25% of the S&P500 reporting, the bigger event is about the lift-off and patience of the FOMC. The way the US reacts to the rest of the world matters more than ever both on a geopolitical level as Russia increases its pressure on Ukraine, as ISIS continues its global battle - note the Japanese hostage this weekend - and as the way China continues its reform path drives commodity demand. Oil deflation and the fear of more currency movements continues to drive the race to the bottom - with the Emerging Markets in the middle of the ECB, BOJ and FOMC currency wars. How China responds with the CNY matters.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK – BALLOTS

The power of the ballot box started with Ancient Greece and continues this weekend with modern Greece as 9.8 million Greeks go to the polls to pick a new Parliament. At stake is the relationship of Greece to the European Union and the EUR. The risk of a Greek Exit has returned but the fear and contagion effects have been muted by the work of the EU leadership since 2011 in ring-fencing others. Cyprus maybe another story and risk but that isn’t the focus today or the week ahead. Rather its month-end and after the ECB QE move most see the strong policy as a powerful enough reason to buy back equities and return to risk. The tender balancing act between deflation from oil and EU austerity against EM and US growth hopes and inflation remains the central question for the year. The key to how markets are performing will always be people and how they vote, hence politics trumps economics. The power of predicting GDP or Inflation and so indirectly monetary policy will always entice investors but the best forecasts often fail given outside shocks. This last week we saw that clearly with the ECB QE moving global bond markets sharply higher as real yields in most developed markets rush to negative territory. The US will be watching this balancing act closely with the forecasts for bonds like 2014 seemingly far too high already.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

THE PROSPECTS FOR THE UK IN 2015 – STOCKS, GILTS AND STERLING

Unlike major Eurozone bond markets, UK 10 year Gilts have yet to make new highs The FTSE has lagged both the S&P500 and the DAX Sterling continues to appreciate against the Euro, but decline versus the UD$ UK election uncertainty will dominate and constrain markets until May

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH NOVEMBER/DECEMBER IDEA DINNER – SEA OF BLACK, SEA OF RED

Last week, Track hosted its November/December Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of analysts, economists, traders, and fund managers. The sea of excess crude oil recently pumped into global markets flowed heavily over the conversation, oozing into every facet of discussion. Participants were concerned about the effect on markets and international trade, noting which countries will be swimming in the black (after trade gains) and which will be in the red. Geopolitical tensions were also at the fore—in the Black Sea region, tensions between Russia and Ukraine persist (and Russia’s reaction function to the oil supply shock also caused concerns); in the Red Sea region, it was anticipated that Saudi Arabian oil policy may cause significant issues with other OPEC nations and fears about another Israel/Iran flare-up persisted. While cheaper energy is a boon in many ways, participants were nonetheless weary about the reaction function of oil-producing nations—the fear was that some may soon be dealing with a sea of blood. This report summarizes the major themes, trades, and market fears discussed at the dinner.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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