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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK - WANING

When central banks cut rates, talk down their currency and warn on growth, they expect the FX and bonds markets to follow with a weaker currency and lower yields. This didn’t happen today and it’s a warning shot as Australia becomes a poster child for waning central bank influence. When rates drop to levels where further action is in doubt then markets take over with supply and demand. Australia is near the bottom for more easing, same with the ECB – and fixed income markets are showing the way. China maybe in a similar situation even as the markets expect more easing from the PBOC, the stock market rally reverses with talk of stamp duties and higher margins. Waning influence is a scary prospect for some central bankers as they rely on their ability to talk as a tool to smooth over markets. This didn’t work today and highlights the financial stability risks ahead. Volatility remains the constant more than growth either for the real economy or the asset markets. The optimism of the EU commission forecasts stands out today as potentially the top of the forecasting cycles – like the moon – most expect European growth prospects to turn with oil higher and rates following along with a EUR stubbornly holding above 1.05. The risk is just more consolidation today as markets wait it out – like watching the moon wane into a new month. There is every reason to fear larger moves ahead with 1.0910 the minimum target for USD bulls as they wait for the FOMC to fall prey to the same fate as the RBA or ECB.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK - MAYFLOWERS

One of the largest weekend betting affairs has come and gone, from the Kentucky Derby to the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao boxing match. While one horse squeaked out a win, the fight was done by decision. There are less clear winners than losers in this world and this maybe the right way to think about markets in the month ahead. There is a seasonality to markets and moods and we are on the cusp of change. April was a noisy month with less clear bullish risk trends than 1Q. But fears were less notable – as deflation in Europe, Greek defaults, China hard landing or US rate hikes all become less likely to matter. Complacency in risk taking almost always leads to larger pain and that is the watch for May. The gambling nature of the month also seems appropriate as we stick to worn adages to describe May – not quite the calm of summer nor the hope of early Spring – selling in May and going away echoes from cycles past. Decisions matter and when they are done with some rules and some discretion their outcomes are less clear and the unintended consequences higher. This mix is frustrating to all those who watch the world with negative interest rates in much of Europe and on going easing policy most everywhere else. The price events of last week – the sharp unwinding of long Bund positions and short USD/EUR left many wondering if the rules had suddenly changed even as the FOMC and BOJ remained on hold and on course with easy money. The week ahead will focus on the UK election, the global PMI reports and the US April unemployment data – but the real fear remains in fixed income as bonds have lost their safe-haven statues with talk of the larger reallocation of risk trade returning just as it did in May 2013 with the US QE taper tantrums. Whether the close of April was a natural portfolio reallocation shift or something larger won’t be clear until after we get all the data and react to it accordingly. Until then we are all hoping to be Mayweathers smelling May Flowers. We want winning horses but fear the track.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

TRACKING FX IN THE LONG-RUN

The month end for April is upon us and 2015 is 1/3 finished with the trends of USD up, bonds up from QE and commodities lower - all in question. The FOMC meeting has concluded with a statement masterfully keeping the status quo of meeting to meeting risks for policy changes. FX markets are likely to be in a state of flux in the next 5 years. Many will confuse this noise for randomness rather than the tectonic moves of capital set by revaluation that started with 2007 and continue today. When discussing value in transactional markets like foreign exchange over a 5-year window becomes even more difficult as policy trumps markets. We all know the key themes of the present - divergent monetary policy, changing demographics in Japan and Europe leading to difficult growth issues, ongoing pressures against globalization as regional powers become more important to emerging markets – China, Iran, Brazil all stand out as examples. Volatility has followed in 2015 but even further out in time there are a number of trends playing out that suggest its not going away.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH APRIL IDEA DINNER – GREASE

Last week, Track hosted its April Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of traders, analysts, and fund managers. As far as the conversation was concerned, “Grease” was the word. Those present debated the future of the homonymic Hellenic Republic—Greece was seen on increasingly slippery ground in the European community, a volatile situation with an increasingly probability of igniting into a Grexit (or “Grexident”, as one participant termed the possibility of an accidental Greek exit). “Grease” continued to be the word as participants debated the future and impact of global crude markets, the lack of sufficient lubrication to guarantee liquidity in the event of an ETF crisis, and the oily quagmire the ECB finds itself in. This report summarizes the themes, trades, and fears discussed at the dinner.

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TRADE IDEAS

Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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