TRACK OFFERS

Superior real-market research, thorough and thoughtful analysis, and a complete suite of premium financial tools tailored to the needs of the serious institutional and individual investor.

If you have an institutional code, click here

forgot your password?
ALREADY REGISTERED?  LOG IN:
MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK - TRICK OR TREAT?

Surprise – the treat for Japan came from the BOJ today as they added to their monetary base by increasing purchases of mostly long term bonds to Y80trn a year, tripled the buying of ETFs and REITs – directly moving stock markets – and then the government made official the rumor of a GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund) asset allocation shift to 25% domestic stocks from 12%. This is a net $120bn shift in equities. The Net result – Nikkei up 5%, JPY down 2%. This helped many ignore the reason for the BOJ action – namely CPI and weaker growth grinding into the next VAT increase next year. That is how candy works – it soothes fears of the present for later costs in the future. JPY weakness will bring bad inflation pressures and aggravate global trade relationships. For the world, this JPY treat may be more a trick as currency weakness drives other regional players to rethink policy. It also leaves the divergence of the FOMC decision to end QE even more a driver for USD strength. The obvious bullish equation for Japan may be less clear for the rest of the world. Witness the run on the RUB to 42 and the desperate hike from the central bank in Russia to 9.5% from 8% after yesterday’s sharp intervention failed. What other nations will suffer similar devaluation problems – that may be the new fragility to fear in a post US QE, new QE elsewhere world. Growth remains central and the US markets are likely to watch US PCE and Chicago PMI accordingly along with the usual month end noise.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH OCTOBER IDEA DINNER – V

Earlier this week, Track hosted its October Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of analysts, analysts, traders, and fund managers. It was estimated that this was Track’s fifty-fifth idea event (depending on how one includes the various Idea Breakfasts and Idea Lunches that have supplemented the dinners over the years) and—coincidentally—the letter V (Roman numeral 5) played heavily into the event. Participants were very interested in the provenance the V-shaped move markets made throughout October where the vertex of the V came mid-month. Those present debated the “V for Vendetta” potential of revolution in Hong Kong (and Beijing’s reaction function) as well as the “V for Victory” potential of the US midterm elections (and its ultimate effect on policy). Furthermore, there was an underlying concern that, much like the aliens in the 1980’s and 2000’s television series V (to introduce a Halloween theme), the markets are dissembling themselves as relatively benign when they could be hiding the potential for much sharper moves. Despite all this, the mood in the room was relatively upbeat—this dinner marks a continued shrugging off of the pessimism that has gripped market participants for the past V or VI years. This report summarizes the major themes, trades, and market fears discussed at the dinner.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

THE CELTIC TIGER AND THE EUROZONE PERIPHERY

Ireland has the lowest yield of troubled nations of the Eurozone periphery The Irish stock market has performed well this year Irish Real-Estate has begun to rebound – is this more than a convergence game?

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE OTC SPACE

In this week’s news recap we see China activity starting to heat up with large Chinese firms coming to the US to gain trading expertise from US banks to grow Chinese markets. In addition, recent trade figures show that show a that September saw increased trade activity in China in both imports and exports, indicating that the world’s second largest economy may not be slowing down after all. In the OTC swaps market, changes are coming in FX as the CFTC seems nearer to mandating central clearing. Firms apparently feel central clearing of FX swaps is close enough that they are already asking the CFTC to pause after central clearing takes effect before allowing made available to trade mandates for FX SEF trading to kick in. There are concerns that mandated central clearing and electronic trading of complex FX swaps may be too much too fast. In other news, Intercontinental Exchange is reportedly looking to leverage its Liffe acquisition, which brought it European interest rate swap trading last year. ICE is said to be looking to launch IRS clearing services to complement its IRS trading. These stories and more are in more detail below.

X

MEMBERSHIP LEVELS AND BENEFITS

PREMIUM
SUBSCRIPTION
BASIC
SUBSCRIPTION
FREE
REGISTRATION
ACCESS TO UP TO 3 TRACK.COM PREMIER EVENTS PER YEAR ***

Track.com's Premier Events include Idea Breakfasts, Idea Lunches, and Idea Dinners held in our New York offices and in other cities throughout the world. These are in-person events, including regular dinners, CEO breakfasts, and regional lunches.

X
ACCESS TO TRACK.COM CONFERENCE CALLS AND WEBINARS

Track.com hosts regular conference calls and webinars. Recordings are made available after each, in a podcast-like format.

X
X
THOUGHT PIECE

Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

X
TRADE IDEAS

Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

X
MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

X X
OBSERVATION

Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

X
X
X
  • ABILITY TO CONTACT AUTHORS
  • PDF ATTACHMENTS WITH NEW ARTICLE ALERTS
X
X
  • ABILITY TO COMMENT ON ARTICLES
  • SAVE ARTICLES FOR LATER READING
  • TRACK ARTICLES & RECEIVE ALERTS
X
X
X
$499.00
PER MONTH
$99.00
PER MONTH
FREE!

READY TO SUBSCRIBE? Select the level that best suits your needs.

If you have an institutional code, click here

PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION BASIC SUBSCRIPTION * FREE REGISTRATION **

* Includes a two-week trial of the Premium subscription

** Includes a two-week trial of the Premium subscription, followed by a one-week trial of the Basic subscription

*** Attendance at events is limited, and requests to attend will generally be handled on a first-come first-serve basis, with the Track.com team managing attendance in order to ensure the best possible experience for participants.