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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK - THANKFULNESS

US markets have one more day before Thanksgiving and the light volume and on going extension of trend in risk assets is one thing for which many traders will be thankful. There are a list of others – central bankers and their infinite liquidity, the ongoing bond rally supporting valuations, the strong corporate profits, the better US GDP, the ongoing push for more supportive trade and fiscal policies from the G20. This drives the global equity rally today and likely through the rest of 2014. There is also better news for Europe today – UK GDP unrevised, French consumer confidence bounces higher – in sharp contrast to the US yesterday and to Italian weakness – and German import prices ex oil were flat. All that is positive and helpful for those looking to buy a bottom in Europe. The troubles for markets, however, remain as Germany sees its 12th failed auction, as the EU Juncker stimulus package delivers less bang and as another ECB speaker pushes out any QE type action to 1Q2015. The UK CBI retail sales were also weaker than hoped making the holiday buying season even more important for investors. The day ahead in the US has the makings of an information overload which usually means no new trading – month-end clean up – and then a long weekend to ponder what it all means. Hence the need to keep the big picture of being thankful for the world we have rather than the one we don’t.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK – BLACK FRIDAYS

The week ahead will be focused on the US holiday spending start, affectionately called “Black Friday.” The US discount for shoppers over the Thanksgiving Holiday is expected to be 39% with toys and electronics the main drivers. The National Retail Federation estimates total retail sales for November and December Holidays at $616.9bn up 4.1% from 2013. However, markets are still thinking through the previous Friday events where ECB Draghi promised officials the ECB “will do what we must” to raise inflation and where the Chinese PBOC surprised with a rate cut as it joined the BOJ and others in easing. This led to an early risk buying spree with the stock markets, commodities and bond markets all rallying significantly. The stark contrast of the US policy against the rest of the world dominates most discussions for 2015 and the “black” ink for risk stems from growth sustaining regardless of rates.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

OIL AND GROWTH

The oil price has fallen by 30% since the summer Global inflation expectations are starting to be revised downwards accordingly Global growth, led by energy importers will be revised higher

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH OCTOBER IDEA DINNER – V

Earlier this week, Track hosted its October Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of analysts, analysts, traders, and fund managers. It was estimated that this was Track’s fifty-fifth idea event (depending on how one includes the various Idea Breakfasts and Idea Lunches that have supplemented the dinners over the years) and—coincidentally—the letter V (Roman numeral 5) played heavily into the event. Participants were very interested in the provenance the V-shaped move markets made throughout October where the vertex of the V came mid-month. Those present debated the “V for Vendetta” potential of revolution in Hong Kong (and Beijing’s reaction function) as well as the “V for Victory” potential of the US midterm elections (and its ultimate effect on policy). Furthermore, there was an underlying concern that, much like the aliens in the 1980’s and 2000’s television series V (to introduce a Halloween theme), the markets are dissembling themselves as relatively benign when they could be hiding the potential for much sharper moves. Despite all this, the mood in the room was relatively upbeat—this dinner marks a continued shrugging off of the pessimism that has gripped market participants for the past V or VI years. This report summarizes the major themes, trades, and market fears discussed at the dinner.

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Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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