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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE WEEKLY TRACK - CARNAVAL

The calendar matters to moods. Next week is a shortened week for the US markets given the Monday is US Presidents’ holiday. For much of the world it’s the lead up to Mardi Gras with the calendar for Easter bringing Lent early this year on March 1. This means unofficial parties, festivals and parades cover the globe from Germany to Brazil to Spain and Mexico – a party before the party and the denials thereafter. The lesson for markets is in the risk reversals. Mood swings dominated the last week and many see them continuing into next. Positions need to reflect the increase in consolidating moves rather than extensions of trends. The divergence of equity performance from bond performance has returned to haunt markets in February. Bonds in the US reflect greater uncertainty than that of equities. Bonds in Europe show political risks for France, Netherlands and Italy. Bonds in Asia reflect the ongoing concerns about US trade policy shifts and the role of policy from the PBOC and BOJ. In a word – rates reflect global divergence. All this has left the FX market less clear with the carry trade pausing Thursday and Friday for many of the EM FX pairs. They like trees don’t grow to the sky. The EUR/JPY has become the risk barometer again with the break of 120 opening a larger move to 115.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

THE IMPACT OF HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND SAVING ON LONG RUN GDP GROWTH

BIS research indicates that household debt to GDP ratios above 80% reduce growth But higher household savings do not appear to lead to higher investment Counter-cyclical fiscal stimulus and fractional reserve lending are much more powerful growth factors than household savings or even household debt

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

THE JANUARY TRACK IDEA DINNER – ROOSTERS AND HENS

The first idea dinner for 2017 by Track Research brought together a great group of analysts, portfolio managers and traders. The dinner proved, over the course of discussion, to be quite unique compared to the other 6 years of Track events. There was no one consensus trade. Why was this so different? - The group maybe part of the explanation, the zeitgeist the other. The level of uncertainty about trends and economic outcomes has never been higher for a Track dinner and yet all with less market fear – the fear index of the VIX is near decade lows. Against that is the universal disdain for rates even as we have had a month of bond rallies – doubts in swaption volatility underscores this point and makes many wonder what market leads and the other follow. Some of this comes from 8 years of post great recession training by central bankers who have been able to manipulate markets to their image of how a recovery should be and what indicators whether yield curves or spreads matter. Others see it as one of aging, where economies might not go into a recession from old age, but rallies do. The year of the Rooster is about persistent, hard-work where image beats substance, where alternative facts are as good as the truth and maybe even better and where the eggs of opportunity are plentiful.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK – AND SHE WAS

Goodbye 2016, we hardly knew you. Hello 2017. The markets are open and ready for business – almost. Much of the world was shut January 2 for a holiday, including the US. The start of 2017 was feeble, like the close on December 30th, but in that many find solace as they see risk in the ebullient mood from November 8th onwards. The hope for a pull back to buy stocks, sell bonds and pick up some cheap USD hold outs the hope for a larger trend into the new year. For many, the end of 2016 was a blessing as the toll of geopolitical change and fear didn’t relate to the markets. For others there was a transcendence about the fray of doubt and economic divergence into something bigger – like the girl tripping in Baltimore next to the Yoo-Hoo factory. The end of the bond market rally, the extension of the stock market rally, the end of Fed easy money and the beginning of an extended USD rally. The US dollar rally in 2016 was the 4th year in a row suggesting something is very different in the world. No one starts a new year without hope and best wishes and we expect the reality of Dec 29 to fade quickly back to the joy of January 3.

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Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

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TRADE IDEAS

Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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