When you are in doubt, do half, when you have a weak trend keep some powder dry. These are the trading adages that still make money. Markets overnight had another set of minor news - RBA Stevens spoke but didn’t talk down the AUD so it rallied. Japan returned from holiday and bought Nikkei. China continues to talk about stimulus. Europe remains ripped apart with worries about Ukraine easing as rebels gave up the black boxes and the bodies of the dead from MH17. These stories aren’t so much about economics but politics and the powder keg of civil wars from Iraq to Ukraine continues to fear any match strikes. Most notable move in the last 24 hours is oil - as it bounces back to levels where real economic pain begins. The cost of energy isn’t trivial in economic growth equations but its too complicated for mood management and we predictably have shifted from yesterday’s moroseness to today’s contained enthusiasm. The biggest price action and the most likely event that mattered overnight is the EUR breaking 1.35 again with this move having momentum and risk for 1.32 in short order. Effect on US shares will be clear if it continues as the correlation of EUR to S&P500 has been one of those stories that just won't go away since 2008.

In our June 4th Research Excerpt, we said: “the smart money, who is in the oil business, is aggressively betting that crude oil is currently over-priced at $103 per barrel. If they are correct, and they almost always are, this means that any decline that pushes oil back below $100 per barrel will probably send these very aggressively net long commodity funds heading for the exits, and that forced selling could fuel the decline that the smart money is betting on.”

--The Third Arrow is hard to deliver but the Fourth Arrow has already been unleashed --State and private investments will switch to equities and real-estate --The “monetary extortion” of negative real interest rates is here to stay

Track hosted its June Idea Breakfast last week, bringing together a number of traders and analyst, sparking conversation between both the bright-eyed and the bleary-eyed. Those present did not seem overly concerned with the dawning of a new financial era. The greater concern was that of being stuck in an unending morning gloaming—somewhere between the extremes of night and day—as continued low volatility and the threat of an all-encompassing liquidity trap served as the backdrop to much of the conversation.