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OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK - TOO CLOSE TO CALL

The betting in the week ahead may be a coin toss. The Scottish Referendum, the FOMC statement and forecasts, the New Zealand Election and of course the Chinese reaction to August industrial production and retail sales. There is an expectation that the week ahead is going to clear the uncertainty of risk that plagued the risk rally and drove bonds and equities substantially lower last week. The rise in volatility in September from multi-year lows isn’t a complete surprise but the volatility of volatility maybe. The ability for traders and investors to confront change in economics and policy will be the fundamental driver for the ongoing high degree of noise and increased volume in markets. Carry trades don’t work when rates move as quickly as they did last week. The best outcomes for the week ahead – a Scottish “no” vote, a FOMC sticking to a “low for longer” forward guidance and a return of New Zealand PM Key aren’t necessarily enough to make for consolidation and a return to trend for equities or other risk assets. Last week brought the catch-up pain trade for emerging markets as they saw the same kind of reaction to bonds as they did in the first taper tantrum trade back in May 2013. The risks for the global growth and stability will be center stage after the FOMC as the G20 meet in Australia to debate and discuss how to make the present set of global imbalances less explosive and dangerous than in 2008. The focus may fall uncomfortably on Germany with is wide current account surplus at odds with the rest of Europe. Similarly, expect the pace of reform in EM to be under scrutiny as those nations that were labeled the “fragile 5” returns to focus as reform pressures mount. All this puts trading anything more speculation than process and puts cash at a premium. This was clear from the 5 out of 8 down drafts in the 8 big global stocks indices last week and may mean 8 out of 8 down if the worst case scenario plays out in the week ahead.

MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – SOLAR FLARE

Looking for the next direction? Solar flares from Wednesday are likely to make GPS, phones and radio transmissions fail today. This will have some risk for those using technology to find their way. Others will be content to be lost. Friday – and its drift day – with equities mixed globally as the China money supply growth proved weaker than hoped, as commodities remain soft except for a oil squeeze and as the US dollar remains bid particularly against the AUD, CAD and JPY. The winners of the last month have become losers now. There is a mean reversion to markets suggesting more consolidation and less conviction in recent trends. Volatility that drove up the USD and others will likely moderate accordingly unless the US data today proves noteworthy. The focus in the US remains squarely on the FOMC next week and the speed of rate hikes in 2015. The 50-50 chance of 50bps by July makes the market nervous and rightfully wary of extending equity gains without further evidence that higher rates are merited by stronger economic growth. Until we see the clear light at the end of the tunnel many are likely content to wait for the aurora borealis instead.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

THE SECOND ARROW OF LIKONOMICS AND THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET

The second arrow of Likonomics – a deleveraging of the credit bubble – looks likely to be postponed.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH JULY IDEA DINNER – THE END OF CREDIBILITY?

Last week, Track hosted its July Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of analysts, economists, traders, and fund managers. The mood in the room ranged from contentious to philosophical, and the specter of a global exit from easy money policies weighed heavily on participants, as those present weren’t sure what to believe (or whom). Other topics included the continued shift in dynamic between emerging and developed markets, the nature of reserve currencies (and the state of foreign exchange in general), and overall geopolitical fears. This report summarizes the major themes, trades, and market fears discussed at the dinner.

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Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

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TRADE IDEAS

Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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