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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – AFTER THE PARTY?

Best to enjoy the party but know the type of hangover that could follow – that is the lesson for today as markets embrace the French 1st round vote and take some relief in the polls being on target driving up equity prices, down the USD, up bond yields, down gold and up oil prices– all making the unknown more palatable into May 7th. Macron leads Le Pen by 22% in the polls. Everyone expects the young Macron to win now and markets reflect that relief but there are some considerations in this elixir for the geopolitical weary investors. This is the first time since 1958, the start of the 5th French Republic, that neither the Socialists nor the Republicans pass the first round. Macron leads the polls for the second but his party – which is just 8 months old - is unlikely to get much support in the June 11th and June 18th legislative elections. France is going to elect either a far-right leader or a maverick that will have little ability to do the hard reforms needed in labor, finance and business to drive growth and improve the lives of the electorate. The second lesson of the day is that the status quo for Europe isn’t going to hold and that maybe some reason to have doubts about the party. The hope for growth needs to translate into such without the support of the ECB – and that will be the next key focus for Europhiles with Draghi and his silver tongue Thursday. Until then the comparison of EU to US growth and politics will remain in play with the Trump promises of big tax reform plans Wednesday now a market event – with the 2-5-7 year debt auctions likely collateral damage as the Friday US deficit focus and debt-ceiling government shutdown risks remain. Congress in the US will need a win to counter the EUR rise and make the USD great again – but its unclear if that is what anyone wants or needs right now. The big resistance is 1.0990 and the 100-day m.a. for the EUR – that is the line to watch throughout the week with failure to break out suggesting 1.0650 again and some filling in of the gap from 1.0725 to 1.0825.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

WILL TECHNOLOGY CHANGE THE PROSPECTS FOR EMERGING MARKET GROWTH?

The challenge to low-cost manufacturing in emerging markets is from technology Some industries will benefit but many jobs will be displaced globally The mercantilist model of emerging market growth will need to adapt Technology will solve some of the demographic challenges of the developed world

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY?

The number one question for traders and investors in 2017 has been a hangover from 2016 – How can markets be so calm even with seemingly ever rising geopolitical uncertainty? – All of which started with Brexit but continued with the election of Trump and follows into this month with the first round of the French Elections. In between we have seen more terrorist acts, more complications in the Syrian conflict, more missiles from North Korea, more talk about US trade policy shifts and tax reforms and a failed attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare. The net result has been that “fear gauges” – whether the VIX or FX option implied volatility – all are lower not higher. The buy-write strategy in equities has performed well, so too has the FX carry trade. Central to the discussion about 2017 is whether these trades all end with a blow-up into a crisis from either known or unknown problems in the weeks ahead. There are 3 key events to watch over the next few weeks that stand out in setting the tone for how macro-markets will trade into 2Q – the French election, the North Korean nuclear threats and the Equity 1Q earnings reports.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK MARCH IDEA DINNER – PECUNIA NON OLET

“Money does not stink” – meaning the value of money isn’t tainted by its origins – a phrase that comes from the Roman Emperor Vespasian, who imposed a Urine Tax on the distribution of such from the public toilets in Rome. When his son, Titus, found fault with him for contriving a tax upon public conveniences, he held a piece of money from the first payment to his son's nose, asking whether its odor was offensive to him. When Titus said "No," he replied, "Yet it comes from urine." Vespasian took over a nearly bankrupt empire in 69 AD and went on to replenish its coffers along with rebuilding the Capitol and the construction of the Coliseum, not to mention more building new roads and bridges in the provinces. Perhaps this is a good starting place for thinking about the second quarter for 2017 and the big themes facing markets as the US faces an April 22 government shut-down risk due to its $20 trillion debt ceiling and as the markets worry about Trump tax reform plans along with other hopes for infrastructure spending and the talk about Border Adjustment Taxes with other trade restrictions being the smelly underbelly of such plans. This was also the start for the Track Research Idea Dinner discussion held in the last week of March with a great group of hedge fund managers, analysts, financial technologists and investors with a focus on the global carry trade, the risks to the Trump agenda and to the global growth recovery.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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