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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – TALKING VS. DOING

This is supposed to be the early weekend – it’s the Friday before US Thanksgiving and with no news on the agenda the markets are logically ready to pack it up but not so fast. Speed bumps lurk in many markets - EUR/JPY being the most obvious for FX traders. There was plenty to consider overnight starting with the US President Obama offering 3-year work permits to 5 million illegal immigrant workers. The reaction from the Congress over the use of an executive order rather than legislation reopens fears of partisanship and deadlock and fiscal brinkmanship with Dec 11 the deadline. The Chinese PBOC fought back overnight against a massive short-squeeze in money markets leading to talk of a more significant easing to stimulate the slowing economy. They cut the deposit rate 25bps to 2.75% and the lending rate 40pbs to 5.6%. The PBOC went to pains to say this was fine-tuning still. Japan’s Abe as promised dissolved parliament and moved for an election next month but perhaps most importantly is FinMin Aso highlighted that JPY weakness has been too far, too fast. 120 may be a medium term target but markets need a step back and regroup. ECB Draghi in a Berlin Banking conference is looking for the opposite as he begs to lift inflation expectations “as fast as possible.” The EUR fell immediately to 1.2430 from 1.2540 on his plea. But the German ECB Weidmann put forth that Europe needs structural reform more than cheap finance. The UK’s Cameron got another by-election loss last night to the UKIP – anti-EU politics are winning on the margin – with the public sector debt burden still large enough to prevent buying new votes for his fraying coalition into next years election. With all this going on it’s not time to call it quits on market movement and volatility even though the recent trends look tired and ready for rest. This is the danger of the day as the talking vs. doing contrast between the PBOC and ECB may mean more trouble into December should Draghi not be able to deliver.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

OIL AND GROWTH

The oil price has fallen by 30% since the summer Global inflation expectations are starting to be revised downwards accordingly Global growth, led by energy importers will be revised higher

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

TRACKING LONDON TEA

There were a number of topics that came up in conversation in London over the last 3 days - this is a quick summary for those that want to stay on top of the macro chatter and trade ideas from the UK. There is no particular order and as usual there is no attribution for the talks as they were off the record.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH OCTOBER IDEA DINNER – V

Earlier this week, Track hosted its October Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of analysts, analysts, traders, and fund managers. It was estimated that this was Track’s fifty-fifth idea event (depending on how one includes the various Idea Breakfasts and Idea Lunches that have supplemented the dinners over the years) and—coincidentally—the letter V (Roman numeral 5) played heavily into the event. Participants were very interested in the provenance the V-shaped move markets made throughout October where the vertex of the V came mid-month. Those present debated the “V for Vendetta” potential of revolution in Hong Kong (and Beijing’s reaction function) as well as the “V for Victory” potential of the US midterm elections (and its ultimate effect on policy). Furthermore, there was an underlying concern that, much like the aliens in the 1980’s and 2000’s television series V (to introduce a Halloween theme), the markets are dissembling themselves as relatively benign when they could be hiding the potential for much sharper moves. Despite all this, the mood in the room was relatively upbeat—this dinner marks a continued shrugging off of the pessimism that has gripped market participants for the past V or VI years. This report summarizes the major themes, trades, and market fears discussed at the dinner.

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Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

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Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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