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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – DENIABILITY

I have ordered Draghi his Christmas Present post his news conference performance. The ECB delivered a taper but he refuses to call it such. It delivered a cut to QE but also broadened the terms of bonds it can buy – allowing longer duration and yields below the -0.4% depo if necessary along with cash for collateral. All this conflicting effort reveals the deeper divisions of supporting Italy and Germany in the same action. The losers yesterday are the periphery and this means the banks will be the central focus going forward (The Stoxx Bank Index ETF is off 0.85% today). The EUR is the collateral damage as politics trump economics. The risk of the ECB is credible deniability, when policy tightening and a path to normalization remain off the table, but actions suggest otherwise. This conundrum hits globally. Overnight, China got inflation above expectations highlighting the need for a tighter policy or a stronger currency or both even as the credit crunch broils and the impossible trinity makes ATM withdrawals in Macau a talking point for capital controls. Higher PPI and still below target CPI means companies have to eat higher commodity prices caused by the weaker CNY – this means less profits, more debt doubts and weaker stocks. Like the ECB, there is a deniability about inducing this state of affairs for the PBOC but it will prove difficult to project China as the new global leader if capital controls and further outward bound investments tighten to protect the CNY. Also overnight, Korea finally impeached the President – leaving the constitutional court 180 days to review the vote. BOK on call monitoring market reactions. The European news has also mattered overnight, German Trade was weaker, UK Inflation Expectations higher, French Industrial Production lower – all of which leaves the EUR as still the barometer for success in trading risk – with a lower EUR helpful in a way that the ECB can’t be – making it all about the ability for us all to deny that a stronger USD doesn’t matter. US 5Y/5Y inflation swap broke the key 2% level today – and the FOMC has won the war on deflation in a way that Japan, Europe and others haven’t. Now to win the peace with 10Y US bonds at 2.50%.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

RUSSIA – WILL THE BEAR COME IN FROM THE COLD?

In 2015/16 the Russian economy suffered in the sharpest recession since 2008/09 The RTSI Stock Index, anticipating a recovery, is up 78% from its January lows Russian government bonds traded at 8% in August down from 16% in December 2014 The Ruble has stabilised after the devaluation of 2014/2015 and inflation is still falling

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK – ADVENT

The arrival of the next new thing for markets and perhaps for politics is upon us. The rise of economic populism will continue to pester markets in the week ahead. So too will the price of bonds as the end of the 30-year rally in fixed income continues to pressure the great rotation trade back to equities and other assets. This, of course, ironically corresponds to the calendar as the days in the Northern Hemisphere grow darker along with the temperature lower. We all want peace, hope, love and faith – but find it increasingly hard to find in a more isolationist world. The Italian Referendum, the Austrian re-run election and the ECB Thursday are the key drivers for the week ahead, over and above, the ongoing US rate watch and “Trump Trade.” The FOMC meeting December 14th is taken a fait accompli for 25bps rate hike, with the news only in the forecasts for how much more “normalization” follows in 2017. The Austrian vote is a test of populism for the EU. In May's election, which was annulled due to voting irregularities, Van der Bellen, of the pro-EU Green Party now running as an Independent, won by just 31,000 votes but opinion polls put Hofer, of the far-right Freedom Party, in the lead this time around with results not officially expected until Monday morning. A Hofer victory may trigger early elections for parliament with the Freedom Party likely leading with its Eurosceptic policy. The Italian Referendum is seen as 75% chance for a “no” vote with PM Renzi promising to resign, but there is no clear alternative. Furthermore, given the lack of polls being accurate – witness the US and Brexit - focus shifts to participation and the gulf of undecided voters as a guide. There are reports of a slight uptick in voting so far suggesting the “no” votes win. Exit polls will be published at 5pm ET Sunday with projections to follow but few expect real results until 9-10pm ET (Monday Morning for Asia). The ECB decision centers around the QE policy and extending its run along with potentially tapering the amount and broadening the universe of potential bonds to buy – with focus on EUR and the aftermath of the political noise from Austria and Italy in the background. All of which leaves markets torn between policy shifts, market shift and the larger power of politics as the next new thing for investors – call it what you may – Trumpflation or the end of globalization – both lead to higher inflation, lower bonds, volatile FX and higher commodities.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

THE TRACK NOVEMBER IDEA DINNER – POPULAR

The last supper for 2016 proved to be a pensive affair, rather shirking from the euphoria of the recent equity rally, in favor of a more contemplative discussion of the US election, its implications, the upcoming European votes and the ongoing risks for the year ahead. The time for a holiday celebration seemingly postponed by the search for reasoning behind the recent trends – with the usual mix of fund managers, analysts, private investors and market mavens – all digging into the wine and food to debate the causes and costs of economic populism. The topics for the dinner discussion focused on the new term “Trumpflation” and what it means; the European risks ahead, the new “hot peace” as opposed to a “cold war” with Russia and others and the bigger risks for 2017.

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Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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