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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

FINANCIAL MARKET PERSPECTIVES - AUGUST 29, 2014

Reports of Russian troops conducting a limited invasion of eastern Ukraine pushed Treasuries higher and U.S. equities lower Thursday. The gains in Treasuries were relatively measured, and occurred in tandem with ongoing strength in European bonds. Stocks meanwhile sold-off sharply at the opening but then gradually recovered most of the losses over the remainder of the day.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE EVENING TRACK - NUMBERS

Almost doesn’t count except in horseshoes and hand grenades. S&P500 2000, DJIA 18,000, NASDAQ 5000 – all are just numbers but somehow have become important goals for markets – as global equities run to 6 year and historic record highs. We close the S&P500 just shy of the target having spent much of the morning above it. But the real surprise on the day isn’t the German IFO weakness or the disappointing US new home sales – the surprise is in the price action of bonds with German Bunds at 0.925% new historic low yields, which in part brought more US bond buying and left US 10Y yields lower as well. The correlations of bonds to equities isn’t making sense but most attribute this to the usual interventionist hopes attached to central bankers as the struggle to get the right policy mix and tools to combat debt deflation – Europe is on the front lines of concerns. Geopolitical fears add to the bid tone for bonds as the month end push for getting duration mixes with the usual safe-haven flows. The USD rallies with the policy divergence in full play – leaving the dollar index at 11-month highs. All this makes for a nervous market as the ability for the USD, S&P500 and US10Y to rally together has a limit – and that is just a number but one that many will respect as obvious given the way markets have to work. The point is that they aren’t working and that may mean we are firmly in the last days of “summer” trading with price action less important than many would hope. Momentum gets dragged back to reality with gravity.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

SEE YOU IN SEPT – ALL CLEAR IN THE OTC SPACE

There’s an old adage that advises investors to “sell in May and go away,” usually until November. The idea behind that strategy is to avoid the traditional declines between May and October. Although the solid July rallies on the S&P and Dow indicate that investors certainly didn’t go anywhere, the same can’t be said for the rest of the industry. The OTC space has been very quiet since the onset of summer. Maybe it’s the heat? Maybe everyone really did go away on vacation? Either way, the following brief summarizes all that’s going on for now.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH JULY IDEA DINNER – THE END OF CREDIBILITY?

Last week, Track hosted its July Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of analysts, economists, traders, and fund managers. The mood in the room ranged from contentious to philosophical, and the specter of a global exit from easy money policies weighed heavily on participants, as those present weren’t sure what to believe (or whom). Other topics included the continued shift in dynamic between emerging and developed markets, the nature of reserve currencies (and the state of foreign exchange in general), and overall geopolitical fears. This report summarizes the major themes, trades, and market fears discussed at the dinner.

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Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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