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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK - UNTHINKABLE

The sharp reversal of markets on the UK voters’ decision to leave the EU – 51.9% vs. 48.1% with 72% turnout - leaves many surprised, frightened and confused. How the markets and pollsters and bookies all got this wrong will be studied but the immediate fear is that all forecasts and polls about political risks are useless. The cost in the US with the election will clearly be in the front of mind. What seems most important is that the “fear” of this event isn’t the same as a financial crisis like Lehman’s or the 1987 US crash. Part of this is that its about Europe and the UK not the US or China or Japan even though they will surely feel some pain. As EU President Tusk noted now isn’t a time for “hysterical reactions” but there is no hiding place for the vote. UK Prime Minister Cameron will stand down and the GBP has had a historic drop – one even more dramatic than when it left the EMU and trades to 30-year lows. The unthinkable happens and with it comes volatility, flight-to-quality and promises of central bank actions to stabilize markets. In fact, the Swiss National Bank has already acted in the FX market, the Danes will do what is needed for FX stability, the BOJ promises to do more, the ECB says its talking with other banks and the Bank of England is working with the UK Treasury to provide liquidity up to GBP250bn even as the UK equity market fares better than the rest of Europe. FX seems to be the key adjustment and shock absorber. The G7 central bankers and finance ministers are having a call to talk about coordinated responses. But the effects of the Black Friday II shock of Brexit are not finished. The worst moves seemed to have happened with the least liquidity and the bounce back in shares, bonds and FX may encourage some to think about value. For the key trading ahead will remain fixed on the GBP and what happens next 1.30 or 1.45.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

WILL JAPAN BE THE FIRST TO TEST THE LIMITS OF QUANTITATIVE EASING?

The Bank of Japan made its first provision against losses from QQE As the JPY has strengthened the Nikkei 225 has fallen more than 16% YTD Domestic institutions have been switching from bonds to stocks Japanese share buy backs are on the rise

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK - WHITE NIGHTS

The Summer comes this week for the Northern Hemisphere and with it bigger expectations. The sun shines in some places all day and all night. Sunshine has a funny way of bringing to light all the weaknesses and warts in places usually hidden. That maybe the case for markets as well. The week ahead brings the long awaited UK referendum vote, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers meeting in China, the flash PMI reports along with German ZEW and IFO, the semi-annual FOMC Chair Yellen testimony to Congress and much more. The expectations are for a week full of volatility and fear while the market action Friday suggested that the worst may be already priced.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH MAY IDEA DINNER – TURNING THE TAP

While March and April balanced out the fears of January and February, the tie-breaker for May is still about central bank policy and the omnipotence of monetary policy to fix all ills from finance to deflation. This all drives the path to June and the FOMC “live” meeting just ahead of the UK referendum on remaining in the European Union. The fear of turning the tap was the backdrop for another Track Idea Dinner with many of the same themes and worries as started the year but with some twists – as the liquidity from the FOMC not raising in March and the Chinese re-leveraging in the first quarter appears to be less sustainable into the second quarter. The usual mix of analysts, economists, investors, traders and financiers joined together for the May Track Idea dinner and came up with some different answers – namely that the tap is turning on liquidity with some ugly implications for the summer ahead.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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OBSERVATION

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