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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

FINANCIAL MARKET PERSPECTIVES - MAY 3, 2016

Treasuries and U.S. equities reversed Friday’s month-end driven risk-off trade in quiet trading Monday. Trading volumes were limited by holidays in the UK, mainland China and Hong Kong as well as the resumption of Japan’s Golden Week market closures Tuesday through Thursday.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK – MAYBE? – CHINA DISAPPOINTS, US AND JAPAN WORRY, MORE POLITICS AS USUAL

The markets are at a cross roads in May – with the curse of “sell in May and go away” ringing in the ears of wizened old traders against the sounds of a robust Spring where low rates in the US, negative rates in Europe and Japan and ongoing fiscal stimulus in China promote a global recovery scenario. Like a bee crisscrossing a blooming field, investors trod the well-worn ranges of risk assets in search of safe yields. Maybe this time is different remains the other phrase heard through the volumes written about 1Q and the grim slowdown in US growth. The fear of a new normal has met the greed of searching for yields and returns anywhere they can be found. Risk analysis remains linked to corporate spreads widening in China, RMB trading doubts, S&P500 1Q earnings and outlooks, the UK “Brexit” fears, the stability of the 1Q commodity recovery and the FOMC policy of gradualism. April brought a resurgence of inflation expectations – but not much growth – leaving the debate over cost-push vs. demand-pull driving the real price dynamics. Perhaps the new normal is also a new version of stagflation? The role of FX markets in this debate can’t be ignored nor will it be as the May G7 meetings in Japan play out against a stronger JPY, weaker USD, ongoing real rate divergence and growing pessimism for longer-term investment returns. The risk remains real that US normalization pressures match inflation expectations and lead to a June rate hike from the FOMC – and that maybe the key for May

THOUGHT PIECE
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US GROWTH – HAS THE WINDFALL OF CHEAP OIL ARRIVED OR IS THERE A SPECTRE AT THE FEAST?

Oil prices have been below $60/bbl since late 2014 The benefit of cheaper oil is being felt across the US Without lower oil prices US growth would be significantly lower Increasing levels of debt are stifling the benefits of lower prices

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH APRIL IDEA DINNER – RUMINATION

Track Research hosted its April Idea Dinner last week, where an assortment of traders, analysts, fund managers, and other market-related individuals grazed over global markets, mulling over both recent and older developments. Surprisingly, participants chewed a significant amount of fat over 2015 (and, to a lesser extent, 1998 and 2008) events—so much so that this summary was very nearly a belated year-in-review. Presumably, much like the grassy plants that must be chewed over and over again by ruminants, passing on to new stomach segments, each time digested a bit more, 2015 has proven hard to break down by market participants. Still, with each pass, more sense is made of recent events; with each bite, new insights are gleaned. If the April Idea is any indication, market participants are closing in on new views of old markets—though it is still not clear if this represents a new twist on the same old meal or a total paradigm shift. This report summarizes the themes, trades, and fears discussed at the April dinner.

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