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OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK – SACRED AND PROFANE

There is the sacred – its holy week with Good Friday and Easter Holiday’s ahead for most of Europe and the Americas. There is the profane – as war continues in Yemen along with talk of an escalation to ground troops as Saudi and Iran fight a proxy war ahead of the March 31 Iranian nuclear framework talks deadline. The mundane continues as well with the Nigeria election pushed to 2-days given the terrorist disruptions of ISIS/Boko Haram. The Greek efforts to find money continued over the weekend with a real deadline for a deal approaching fast – role of selling real assets is back in play along with bank capital controls. The contrast of the sacred and the profane is usually best displayed as the difference between nakedness and nudity. The eye may have the same picture but the mind has different thoughts. For French Sociologist Durkheim, the difference was one of the collective against individual concerns. There is also time – sacred things are eternal while profanity lives in the moment. So too the sacred and profane worlds collide when it comes to economic data in the week ahead as PMI reports globally paint a picture for modest recovery while central bankers grabble with lower prices and lower expectations for growth and real wages. The difference between wealth and income globally widens to a point where the 99% see the 1% as wicked. The mal-distribution of capital globally makes longer term goals for stability and sustainability more difficult and beg the question of the lenses used by governments to see the real economy. The week ahead will focus on growth and how policy can support it – with the return of USD strength, QE policy plays in Europe and Japan and fiscal stimulus in EM all key factors for keeping 1Q trends intact into 2Q. The balance of negative rates and equities to FX and open capital flows make for binary outcomes.

MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

FINANCIAL MARKET PERSPECTIVES - MARCH 30, 2015

Treasuries strengthened Friday as market attention shifted from the bearish quarter-end considerations that limited demand in the week’s note auctions to prospects for reasonably strong month-end duration extensions at the beginning of the coming week.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

GERMAN RESURGENCE – WHICH ASSET? STOCKS, BUNDS OR REAL ESTATE

German domestic consumption is driving GDP growth as wages rise The effect of a weaker Euro has yet to be seen in exports Lower energy prices are beginning to boost corporate margins Bund yields are now negative out to seven years

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH FEBRUARY IDEA DINNER – NO FEAR

Last week, Track hosted its February Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of traders, analysts, economists, and fund managers. The mood in room was contemplative, as participants considered the increasing degree of market oscillations in the past weeks. At the same time, the discussion was marked by a noticeable lack of fear of extreme situations. Perhaps it was just the wine, but—despite noting the potential for sudden sharp moves, the conversation was not marked by the significant apprehension of sudden dramatic market shifts that has colored similar dinners in the past. There was little fear of an imminent equities collapse, despite the apparent frothiness in indices; there was little fear about a European blowup, despite continued whispers of a Grexit or Brexit; there was little fear (okay, maybe a little more fear) of a blow-up in oil-producing countries due to the crude oil glut. The biggest prickling doubt expressed at the dinner—and this is undoubtedly the result of the incentive structure shared by market participants—was that passive strategies would continue to outperform active ones in the years ahead. This report summarizes the themes, trades, and fears discussed at that dinner.

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Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

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TRADE IDEAS

Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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OBSERVATION

Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

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