Treasury prices fell sharply while U.S. equities rallied to start the week Monday in part due to beginning-of-the-month asset allocation trades. Some key stock indices hit record or multi-year highs in the process. Treasuries also fell under the weight of what is expected to be the second largest corporate bond offering in history by pharmaceutical company Actavis. The loss of what had been strong month-end support last week depressed Treasuries as well.

Another rate cut from China, better PMI reports from around the world and yet somehow markets are listless. The reaction to news is muted compared to what happened last week and this maybe important as the Lion of March is still resting. Don’t expect it to last long - data drives policy and the reaction to better EU data given the QE means better equities, stable bonds and a flat EUR for now. This won't be the case in the US as the battle for hawks and doves is less clear and June vs. September does matter. The focus on the day is on the US data and the ISM matters given the sharp weakness in Chicago PMI and the mixed bag of reports in February. The risk of weaker US data unwinding the USD and driving US bonds back bid seems reasonable - with equities unlikely to like weaker growth as much as lower rates.

Industrial commodities continue to weaken The BoC and RBA have cut official rates in response to falling inflation and slower growth The RBA has more room to manoeuvre in cutting rates, Australian Bonds will outperform

Last week, Track hosted its January Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of analysts, traders, and fund managers. Those present were pensive—deeply considering the state of the market—but the mood in the room was nonetheless light. Participants traded jokes illustrating the state of the markets and their attitudes to it. (One joke, for which the parallels to today’s markets are readily apparent, involved two psychological researchers who conducted an experiment on their twin children. They filled one child’s room with all sorts of toys, and the child came out crying because he had everything he desired and did not know what to do. They filled the other child’s room with horse manure, and the child came out jubilant, shouting “Where’s the pony!?”). In addition to trading jokes, attendees riddled over the general state of the markets, trying to unravel the crude oil puzzle, to untangle the effects of divergent central bank policy, and to delve into the intricacies of recent geopolitical developments. This report briefly summarizes the major themes, trades, and market fears discussed at that dinner.