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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK –SIGNALS

There is no doubt that markets are twitchy and waiting for strong signals to move away from the August slumber of yield chasing in tight ranges with low volume. The search for certainty revolved around the FOMC Vice Chair Bloomberg interview at 6.30 am ET today. He spoke for 20 minutes and said less than many hoped and sounded less hawkish than Friday. The quick summary - The strong USD has an impact on inflation, pace of FOMC hikes is data dependent, and the Fed isn’t a one-and-done story. The second take of Fischer isn’t as biting as the first. The signals are a bit fuzzier. The other signal that gets many excited is coming from a star 95-light years away that has at least one planet like Earth. Perhaps there is an alternate to human intelligence. But its fuzzy and not clear – similar to Fischer – but with more hope. In the meantime – its all about the overnight stories just not mattering o Japan unemployment drops to 3% - 21 year low o Swiss Kof falls below 100 – suggesting economic contraction o German States CPI less than expected – gives ECB some room All this leaves markets dreaming of easier ECB and BOJ and tighter FOMC but being just not sure – so they go back to data dependency but only in the US. The yield chasing plays of carry in FX maybe the best way to measure this waiting game with the G10 AUD/JPY suggesting the trend until Friday is intact.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE PRE-JACKSON HOLE MORNING TRACK - WWJS

This was lost in the cybersphere apologies to all loyal subscribers - and while its not going to matter - its good to keep for historical reference. What will Janet Say? So it’s come to this – last big Friday for the Summer – with FOMC Chair Yellen speaking on big picture policy and perhaps hinting about the risks for September and December rate hikes. The markets have been uncomfortably calm all week and the wait for this event is over. But the answers to uncertainty are likely to remain and that is the rub for the weekend and the new month ahead. The news flow overnight was not supportive for bigger risk taking. o Japan CPI lower than expected – adds to pressure for BOJ easing Sep 21 o China adds more liquidity – still stock market down on the week o UK and French GDP revisions in line – but not enough to inspire hope The focus is on the odds of a Fed hike in September and then December – put that at 28% and 55% respectively. If Janet says something this moves and the USD, bonds and risk mood with it.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

THE JULY TRACK IDEA DINNER - SUMMER OF OUR DISCONTENT

Track held its July idea dinner ahead of the BOJ rate decision, the EBA European bank stress tests and month end. The steamy weather matched the moods of the participants, a good group of money managers, commodity traders, market analysts and other investors. No one could be called truly bearish – but conversely – no one was bullish. This is the summer of our discontent. There is no summer sun that lifts spirits. The litany of ills that befell the markets in July explains much of the lack of confidence – with a failed coup in Turkey, multiple terrorist attacks in France, Germany and the US; a coyly hawkish FOMC statement; a disappointing BOJ policy decision – with no further easing of rates or expansion of QE; a wait-and-see decision from the BOE and a clearly bearish set of forward looking data along with increasingly worrying US politics with Trump and Clinton both at historic highs for voter dislike and distrust. The drop in oil, the rally up in gold and Palladium, the weakness of the USD, the rally up in Emerging Markets – all that fed into the dinner debate – as markets remain near historic highs in equities, lows in bond yields and yet the IMF and World Bank cut growth forecasts and warn of more uncertainty.

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Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

UNCHARTED BRITISH WATERS – THE RISK TO GROWTH, THE OPPORTUNITY TO REFORM

Uncertainty will delay investment and damage growth near term A swift resolution of Britain’s trade relations with the EU is needed Without an aggressive liberal reform agenda, growth will be structurally lower Sterling will remain subdued, Gilts, trade higher and large cap stocks, well supported

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Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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