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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – SUSPENDED

The news overnight was all about price action whether MYR, China shares, Oil or EUR – all mattered more than headlines. The RBA was on hold as expected but AUD fell 1% anyway with their verbal push and China’s weaker demand for commodities. The better German IP was ignored with another technically failed 10Y Linker auction. The UK IP was better but not enough to matter as the manufacturing was weaker and GBP breaks down below key support. Price action matters, economics not so much with the key focus on China shares falling off another 5% at mid day and bouncing back to close off 1.3% on government buying. Of the 2,781 companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, 769 were suspended as of the Tuesday session. MYR breaks the 3.80 line and this leaves open what the government will do about a currency that moves 10% lower and still doesn’t help the economy. NOK had its pain trade on today following the 7.7% oil drubbing yesterday. All things being equal – no one seems as happy today – with the relative calm yesterday gone. Focus is going to be on the China and Greek headlines still but the market leaders are in things like copper or in the supposed safe-havens like the GBP. All the previous ideas about what is value and what is safe are suspended now. We are waiting for the next central bank edict and that may just be from the FOMC with the US rate divergence sufficient to drive USD back as the safe-haven of choice.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE EVENING TRACK – TLI

Too little information – that is the TLI acronym that dominated trading today where sharp moves didn’t really happen except in oil and Greek bonds. There was a notable frustration in the EUR/USD which ends today about 0.5% lower from Friday even with risks of a Greek exit seemingly higher. The biggest moves in the USD were in EM where CLP, COP, BRL all lost ground. This is blamed more on commodities and China than on Greece. The focus on Greece dominates and seems to have left many investors frozen waiting for more headlines – with the ball now in the Tsipras court with new proposals for a deal awaited by the EU. Energy prices in the US fell apart – WTI is off 7.06% to $52.90 breaking the $55 support overnight and never looking back. The blame for oil being lower – Greece uncertainty, Iran nuclear deal hopes and expected more supply accordingly, along with the US inventory rise coupled with rig count climbing. Demand for oil is in doubt not just because of the China stock volatility and the Greek “no” vote but also because of weaker growth from the BRICs and developed markets. The other big mover - Greek bonds had a bad day as well – not a surprise given the default risks – as 2Y ran up 14.5% on the day to 48.26% but they touched 61.8% in the panic after the “no” vote. 10Y rates are up a mere 3.25% to 17.27% - flirting with 18% early in the day. US bonds are bid – 10Y US rates are 10bps lower at 2.285% back to the lows seen overnight. In contrast Bunds were off 2.6bps to 0.76% on the day. US equities are lower but not as much as European shares given that many see the US as less exposed to Greece and more to China. The weakness in the US is blamed more on oil than on banking jitters.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

WHICH WAY NOW - FTSE, GILTS, STERLING AND THE EU REFERENDUM?

Uncertainty is bad for business and the UK will struggle ahead of the referendum Gilt yields have been around 150bps higher than Bunds over the last 25yrs The DAX has substantially outperformed FTSE over the same period Higher productivity is key to UK growth but, in the long run, demographics will help

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH MAY/JUNE IDEA DINNER – NET GAIN OR LOSS?

Last week, Track Research hosted its May/June Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of analysts, fund/portfolio managers, and traders. Notably, there was an absence of any strong directional sentiment in the room—those present lacked an overwhelming opinion as to which way the ball would tip. Instead, participants duked it out over the net effects of recent market developments and longer-term post-crisis trends. Dovish global monetary policy was praised for ameliorating the effects of the global crisis, but critiques were also lobbed that easy money prevented the necessary creative destruction that could have been a slam dunk for innovation and growth. German bunds were identified as coming out of a long-term mispricing, but were also charged with generating substantial market instability. The potential for a Russian leadership transition was described as a growing source of geopolitical uncertainty, with overall potential effects ranging from a net power vacuum to expansionist aggression. This report summarizes the themes, trades, and fears discussed at the dinner.

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Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

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