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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK - FLASH

There has been a logical inconsistency since the UK vote that rests on the reality that the British decision to leave the European Union has forced a recession there, and also a slowdown in Europe, but market sentiment has responded to such fears with more faith in monetary policy prescriptions than recognition of liquidity traps. July is risk-on for equities, risk-off for bonds, good for the USD and better for EM – something not seen since 2012 at the heights of the Greek crisis. The worst fears about “Brexit” are yet to be realized – as growth only now is set to collapse. So while the hit to growth has been obvious, the hit to risk less so. Today is about the flash PMI reports in the UK and Europe and the clarity that the UK decision to leave the EU hurting growth in the UK but not yet in Europe – so there was little for the ECB to do yesterday, more for the BOE, and both want to stoke up pressure for politicians. This is a great way for the G20 to start in China as the inaction of the BOE and ECB maybe a lesson for the BOJ and FOMC meetings next week.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK - FULL BLOOM?

If last week was about Goldilocks following the US jobs report, this week was more about summer markets and bringing the risk-rally to full bloom. Equity investors were talking about missing the next 5-10% upside move and 2Q earnings are now the key driver and focus in the US – with the FOMC seen as either a non-risk because of their patience or only to act if the rally in stocks is matched by significantly better data. This logic gained hold Friday but for the other worries globally. The ability to ignore Nice terror attacks, Turkish coup attempts and increasingly ugly US politics will be tested again this week. The earnings calls are now the logical backdrop to watch for global concerns with the FOMC financial conditions trigger finger less important than prudent patience until Autumn. Until then the list of concerns and worries are about the same with the USD gains on higher rates this week something to watch for next week, with the oil price gains of 1H2016 stalling many see $35 as more of a risk than $55 again. The better China data last week didn’t really make the fears of CNY depreciation and less China growth go away – it’s about the Chinese consumer now – and so the role of leverage and PBOC policy matter. The UK Brexit concerns are seen as a one off – with its maybe mattering to the GBP and UK real estate but less so the US or Asia and even the EU knock-on has been less feared if only because the vote didn’t lead to a financial liquidity crisis. The next set of concerns for the US and maybe Asia again is inflation – and that will be something to watch with the central bank decisions this week from the ECB to many other EM nations like Turkey and Brazil is likely to matter again. The risk for markets as they trade summer carry and momentum rests on the fear that we may already be in full bloom. If this is the best we can get in 2016, what then is the worst?

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UNCHARTED BRITISH WATERS – THE RISK TO GROWTH, THE OPPORTUNITY TO REFORM

Uncertainty will delay investment and damage growth near term A swift resolution of Britain’s trade relations with the EU is needed Without an aggressive liberal reform agenda, growth will be structurally lower Sterling will remain subdued, Gilts, trade higher and large cap stocks, well supported

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK JUNE IDEA DINNER - LOVE INNS?

Track Research hosted its June Idea dinner under the shadow of the UK referendum and the shock of market reactions and political confusions. This topic dominated the evening as we brought together hedge fund managers, private traders, global analysts and serial entrepreneurs for an evening of macro-economic discussions and worries. The consensus for “remain“ being the easier route was absolute and yet the shock of the “leave” result for the UK as it tries to figure out how to divorce from the European Union without crisis seems impossible. There were other topics and lots of debate about the market path ahead from risk-on to risk-off. For many there was nothing but remorse and a yearning for staying “in,” while the leaving didn’t bring about the hope of an open road but rather the fear of more potholes. Let’s call our June dinner a “love inn” for lack of a better way to put the mood.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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