TRACK OFFERS

Superior real-market research, thorough and thoughtful analysis, and a complete suite of premium financial tools tailored to the needs of the serious institutional and individual investor.

If you have an institutional code, click here

forgot your password?
ALREADY REGISTERED?  LOG IN:
MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – CLOUDY?

It’s a Friday in the summer, month-end, and sunny in New York. What could possibly go wrong? The overnight news was significant – Japan saw a surprise drop in household spending due to weather, a rise in unemployment and a negative Tokyo July CPI core rate – all of which suggests the BOJ has work to do. The China market fell with more promises of easy money not sufficient – as the nation sees its worst monthly stock market performance since 2008. Not to fear though as Beijing gets the 2022 Winter Olympics and the snow machine makers go bid. New Zealand saw its business confidence collapse to 6-year lows sending NZ$ back to .6550. The German retail sales were surprisingly weak – showing that wage gains aren’t sufficient to keep growth intact in Europe but the EUR is higher continuing to track on Greek debt deal talks as Tsipras continues to control his Syriza party. The CPI in Europe was in line headline but higher on core driving Bunds yields higher but job growth has stalled and many see 3Q playing out less favorably even with ECB QE and weaker oil prices. Global politics remain the key driver of uncertainty that pushes up fears and volatility while rate policy divergence hangs like a heavy cloud over all markets. The EUR remains in play with it being the funding currency of choice and its gaining today with EM flows all negative again as Asian growth doubts coupled with weaker commodities wreak havoc on investors. No one expects much salvation from a much stronger US either. So it’s onto something else to make us happy July 31. The stability for financial markets was originally targeted by central bankers in 2009 as a key for restarting animal spirits – today looks like a straight line for the bottle. Risk barometer of choice is EUR/USD still and its clear that the world is watching 1.1015 close – the 100 day ma. for a signal that August will be stuck in the same 1.08-1.14 range for the rest of summer.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

TRACKING THE FOMC - SOLID?

The parsing of the Federal Reserve Statement is like reading tealeaves and the seers are saying that September is still in play. This matters because the previous 2 meetings in play had the Fed back away from language encouraging hike speculation. But if we are trying to read a transparent Fed its more about the mixers – the state of play is whether the FOMC is a liquid, solid or gas. Given the summer heat, they dream of ice and will be likely not to turn to steam buy September. The balance of the FOMC seems to pivot on the NAIRU level and most see 5% as a key trigger for faster action. The compare and contrast of the FOMC statement shows little change except in the economic assessment – this was all as expected. The surprises were in the small tweaks to wording about the economy which are taken as slightly more hawkish and this means the data dependency will continue for markets making every economic release from now until September 17 will be drivers for volatility.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

TRACK 2Q REVIEW AND 3Q OUTLOOK – HALF EMPTY?

The half-year brings less optimism on global growth, less joy in equity markets and more doubts about how wise it is for China financial reforms or Greek referendums to play out unfettered. The glass for the next quarter and the next half is either half-empty or half-full depending on your mood and that uncertainty bleeds over into markets increasing volatility. The power of central banks to ease monetary conditions and jump start economic growth is in doubt. The balancing act of weaker oil prices helping global consumers tilted lower over the last 6 months as business investments were lower in the oil and gas sector hitting the US and Canada and commodity exporters in emerging markets. The surprises for 2Q came from the rapid rise and decline in China shares, the relative stability of the EUR/USD despite ongoing Greek fears and the significant bounce back in oil prices even with OPEC keeping output unchanged.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH MAY/JUNE IDEA DINNER – NET GAIN OR LOSS?

Last week, Track Research hosted its May/June Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of analysts, fund/portfolio managers, and traders. Notably, there was an absence of any strong directional sentiment in the room—those present lacked an overwhelming opinion as to which way the ball would tip. Instead, participants duked it out over the net effects of recent market developments and longer-term post-crisis trends. Dovish global monetary policy was praised for ameliorating the effects of the global crisis, but critiques were also lobbed that easy money prevented the necessary creative destruction that could have been a slam dunk for innovation and growth. German bunds were identified as coming out of a long-term mispricing, but were also charged with generating substantial market instability. The potential for a Russian leadership transition was described as a growing source of geopolitical uncertainty, with overall potential effects ranging from a net power vacuum to expansionist aggression. This report summarizes the themes, trades, and fears discussed at the dinner.

X

MEMBERSHIP LEVELS AND BENEFITS

PREMIUM
SUBSCRIPTION
BASIC
SUBSCRIPTION
FREE
REGISTRATION
ACCESS TO UP TO 3 TRACK.COM PREMIER EVENTS PER YEAR ***

Track.com's Premier Events include Idea Breakfasts, Idea Lunches, and Idea Dinners held in our New York offices and in other cities throughout the world. These are in-person events, including regular dinners, CEO breakfasts, and regional lunches.

X
ACCESS TO TRACK.COM CONFERENCE CALLS AND WEBINARS

Track.com hosts regular conference calls and webinars. Recordings are made available after each, in a podcast-like format.

X
X
THOUGHT PIECE

Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

X
TRADE IDEAS

Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

X
MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

X X
OBSERVATION

Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

X
X
X
  • ABILITY TO CONTACT AUTHORS
  • PDF ATTACHMENTS WITH NEW ARTICLE ALERTS
X
X
  • ABILITY TO COMMENT ON ARTICLES
  • SAVE ARTICLES FOR LATER READING
  • TRACK ARTICLES & RECEIVE ALERTS
X
X
X
$499.00
PER MONTH
$99.00
PER MONTH
FREE!

READY TO SUBSCRIBE? Select the level that best suits your needs.

If you have an institutional code, click here

PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION BASIC SUBSCRIPTION * FREE REGISTRATION **

* Includes a two-week trial of the Premium subscription

** Includes a two-week trial of the Premium subscription, followed by a one-week trial of the Basic subscription

*** Attendance at events is limited, and requests to attend will generally be handled on a first-come first-serve basis, with the Track.com team managing attendance in order to ensure the best possible experience for participants.