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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – SUPER MOONS

The moon was 13,000 miles closer to the earth last night and appears slightly larger than normal, coupled with the full moon Saturday, many see this as a symbol of the market volatility or at least the mood swings for investors – where China shares drop nearly 4% by lunch, end down 0.8% at close, even as authorities back away from big share buying to support the market and where Jackson Hole ends with FOMC lift-off still on the cards for September. The two worries of August are stubbornly hanging onto markets through the last day of the month. This left the European markets to be the sunshine with the HICP higher than expected, German retail sales better and even the Swiss Kof bouncing back to stable territory. Markets rallied back with the news and the UK holiday left few worried about the BOE even though Carney sounded hawkish in Wyoming. No one starts this week thinking its going to be easy and the day later in the week dominates along with the ECB meeting. So what do you watch in FX? The one currency that trades only on orders – GBP – as it’s the canary in the coal mine for risk – with the lack of buying telling about the real fears ahead.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

AN AUTUMN REASSESSMENT – WILL THE FALLOUT FROM CHINA FAVOUR EQUITIES, BONDS OR THE US DOLLAR?

The FOMC rate increase may be delayed An equity market correction is technically overdue Long duration bonds offer defensive value The US$ should out-perform after the “risk-off” phase has run its course

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

TRACKING RISK ASSETS - BLOOD RED

The tape was all red with a new twist for the first time in 4 years as the “R” word – recession – has been used by analysts try to explain global equity and commodity and currency pains today. The flow of capital was 2-3 times normal and the volume reflects the real panic in markets across the world. Red ink has also hit “liquidity” as the sharp prices movements in these markets reveal a lack of continuous market making – risk-taking has evaporated in many markets- and computer aided trading frays apart. FX markets in particular have seen a shift in the usual plentiful liquidity. This isn’t how at $5trn a day market should trade USD/JPY tumbled from Y119.64 to Y116.18 in about 15 minutes and only stabilized after US stocks opened and recovered from their lows. The EUR similarly moved as US stock market futures triggered the 5% circuit breaker ahead of the open and rallied from $1.1550 to $1.1710 with some 1.1714 prints claimed but in low volume. The fact that we close today with JPY at 118.85 and EUR at 1.1575 is little comfort. Both nations are watching their currency gain when their economies need the opposite – and their ongoing QE is likely to need a further more aggressive shot of liquidity. The risk for both is that the have seen blow-off tops and that the ECB and BOJ redouble their easing efforts.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH JULY/AUGUST IDEA DINNER – BOTTOM OF THE EIGHTH OR NINTH

Joining our eager audience once again, this is Track Research, and we are reporting on a real nailbiter. The Naysayers (that ragtag assortment of analysts, fund managers, and traders that came to our July/August Idea Dinner) are up by just one, with the Yeasayers (the similarly-named team of similarly-occupied people) trying their best to close things up. We are at the bottom of the eighth—or is it ninth?—just who is keeping score, anyway? Either way, we’re near the end of the whole shebang. Unless we have a tie, then who knows how many extra innings we can run? Will Head Umpire Yellen (a later-in-the-game switchout for Head Umpire Bernanke, who gave a valiant effort before the job overwhelmed him) maintain the accommodative stance, keeping things on an even keel between the teams? They almost seem afraid for the game to end—there have been looong innings to this recovery, it has lasted longer than most (but not all) others. China’s pitching is slowing—it can’t maintain these fast balls forever—a sudden slump could put this whole thing to rest. And what about Commodities? If he strikes out (and he’s been going pretty strong for a long, long time), there’s no way this keeps going! This report summarizes the themes, trades, and fears discussed at the Idea Dinner (and—we promise—drops the baseball conceit going forward).

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Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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OBSERVATION

Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

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