Last Friday, Track CEO Bob Savage sat down with Andy Busch of the Busch Update podcast. The whole interview was recently made available, and we have provided a link to the podcast as well as bullet points of Bob's insights.

European markets rallied into Draghi and despite a weaker French IP and more hawkish ECB comments. There was a bit of anticipation around the Draghi speech today – as if his agenda would change – but it didn’t with focus squarely on banking union, growth and austerity. Europe continues to believe that they can grow by cutting spending rather than more radical reforms for markets and taxes. The agendas of the world appear to be colliding into a nasty collage for investors as they contemplate 2014. The UK trade data shows the effects of a stronger GBP hitting back at growth while industrial production there rose in contrast to France. The focus overnight wasn’t in Europe but in Asia – where China industrial production was off a smidge from expectations but the overall picture for China in 4Q is 7.5% plus GDP. The retail sales rose – particularly those linked to homes – suggesting the power of real estate matters still. Rates everywhere are easier despite the hawkish trio of comments yesterday from FOMC speakers. The QE taper appears fully priced and non-consequential to investors as they grind out the last morsel of hope for 2013 gains. The agenda for the US will remain on QE and on the hopes for a fiscal deal by Christmas. But what really matters in 2014 isn’t the clash between US QE tapering and EM capital flows but more the hidden agendas not discussed from leaders today – of the need for more growth at the expense of cheaper commodities or beggar-thy-neighbor FX policy – or by more technology investments. The risks for investors will always be worst in the unknown unknowns.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal predicted that the looming “Volcker Rule Won't Allow Banks to Use 'Portfolio Hedging.'” This subject has been discussed and re-discussed for a while, but much of the discussion, and perhaps the rule itself, appears to misunderstand the very nature of hedging.

Last week, Track hosted its September Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of analysts, traders, and strategists. The room was pensive—the threat of the Federal Government going to the mattresses loomed heavily—but nonetheless skewed toward optimism in the longer-term. Discussion skewed heavily toward central bank policy, and the consensus was that the need for excessive easing is rapidly diminishing. However, questions abounded over just how the central banks (particularly the US Federal Reserve) will go about packing up their ammo. It’s one thing to announce a policy of leaving the gun and taking only the sweet cannoli, but getting to that point is another problem entirely.