TRACK OFFERS

Superior real-market research, thorough and thoughtful analysis, and a complete suite of premium financial tools tailored to the needs of the serious institutional and individual investor.

If you have an institutional code, click here

forgot your password?
ALREADY REGISTERED?  LOG IN:
MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – NEGATIVE RATES

The surprise today isn’t the ongoing FOMC induced considerable rally in equities but rather the new Swiss National Bank move to negative rates to defend the CHF floor against the EUR, counter safe-haven capital flows from the Russian crisis and to fight deflation. The SNB moved from 0-0.25% 3M Libor to a wider -0.75%-0.25% with -0.25% on sight deposits over CHF10mn. It costs money to keep money in a bank. The timing of the SNB move matters. It follows the FOMC and its estimates of the trajectory of the lift-off in rates for 2015 – low rather than high with 2-3 hikes priced for 2015 rather than 4-5. The other point that the SNB has made is that it starts negative rates the day of the next ECB meeting. The flow of capital in the last 3 weeks has been difficult for safe-havens and Switzerland highlights this point. The other side of the mirror is Russia where $87bn or 17% of the reserves have been lost in a fog of RUB depreciation. The battle for stability in markets has been won thanks to the calendar and to oil finding a temporary bottom but that doesn’t mean the war over currencies has finished. CHF negative rates may be woefully insufficient if BOJ and ECB actions continue. The year-end targets for JPY at 122 or EUR at 1.20 remain firmly intact for many FX traders and CHF crosses will reflect that and ongoing turmoil in Russia. Even worse for the SNB is that the ECB and BOJ could follow them should their present fight against deflation not work. The chart in JPY from 122 to 115.50 and back to 119 last night reflects what we all know about negative rates – they are more likely to induce volatility than stability.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

TRACKING MRS. CLAUS

Janet Yellen and Mrs. Claus haven’t been seen in the same room. Is there a chance that they are one and the same? There is a mythical quality to anyone brave enough to take the job of FOMC Chair so the comparison to a mythical bringer of holiday gifts makes some strange sense today. But blind faith in the Santa Claus myth has some risks. There is also a dangerous precedent in keeping policy too low for too long. The risk of bubbles and the sharp edges of the business cycle driving moral hazards in the US and global economy continues. This leaves us all watching the economic data and hoping for a prosperous new year.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH NOVEMBER/DECEMBER IDEA DINNER – SEA OF BLACK, SEA OF RED

Last week, Track hosted its November/December Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of analysts, economists, traders, and fund managers. The sea of excess crude oil recently pumped into global markets flowed heavily over the conversation, oozing into every facet of discussion. Participants were concerned about the effect on markets and international trade, noting which countries will be swimming in the black (after trade gains) and which will be in the red. Geopolitical tensions were also at the fore—in the Black Sea region, tensions between Russia and Ukraine persist (and Russia’s reaction function to the oil supply shock also caused concerns); in the Red Sea region, it was anticipated that Saudi Arabian oil policy may cause significant issues with other OPEC nations and fears about another Israel/Iran flare-up persisted. While cheaper energy is a boon in many ways, participants were nonetheless weary about the reaction function of oil-producing nations—the fear was that some may soon be dealing with a sea of blood. This report summarizes the major themes, trades, and market fears discussed at the dinner.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

WILL THE NIKKEI BREAKOUT OR FAIL AND FOLLOW THE YEN LOWER?

The Japanese Yen has declined further against its main trading partners The Nikkei Index has trended higher on hopes of structural reform and QQE JGBs remain supported by BoJ buying

X

MEMBERSHIP LEVELS AND BENEFITS

PREMIUM
SUBSCRIPTION
BASIC
SUBSCRIPTION
FREE
REGISTRATION
ACCESS TO UP TO 3 TRACK.COM PREMIER EVENTS PER YEAR ***

Track.com's Premier Events include Idea Breakfasts, Idea Lunches, and Idea Dinners held in our New York offices and in other cities throughout the world. These are in-person events, including regular dinners, CEO breakfasts, and regional lunches.

X
ACCESS TO TRACK.COM CONFERENCE CALLS AND WEBINARS

Track.com hosts regular conference calls and webinars. Recordings are made available after each, in a podcast-like format.

X
X
THOUGHT PIECE

Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

X
TRADE IDEAS

Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

X
MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

X X
OBSERVATION

Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

X
X
X
  • ABILITY TO CONTACT AUTHORS
  • PDF ATTACHMENTS WITH NEW ARTICLE ALERTS
X
X
  • ABILITY TO COMMENT ON ARTICLES
  • SAVE ARTICLES FOR LATER READING
  • TRACK ARTICLES & RECEIVE ALERTS
X
X
X
$499.00
PER MONTH
$99.00
PER MONTH
FREE!

READY TO SUBSCRIBE? Select the level that best suits your needs.

If you have an institutional code, click here

PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION BASIC SUBSCRIPTION * FREE REGISTRATION **

* Includes a two-week trial of the Premium subscription

** Includes a two-week trial of the Premium subscription, followed by a one-week trial of the Basic subscription

*** Attendance at events is limited, and requests to attend will generally be handled on a first-come first-serve basis, with the Track.com team managing attendance in order to ensure the best possible experience for participants.