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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – UP AND DOWN

The up and down and up for the USD in May has left many traders seasick. The start of summer trading isn’t supposed to be so volatile and so difficult to game. The gentle ocean breezes from a weekend of Memorials and parades and barbeques has brought a renewed heating up of old problems. The Greek concerns are front and center with a need for a deal this week seeming obvious. No one really thinks there will be an accident but no one wants to jump in front of the train either. The data overnight was minor – New Zealand trade was better but not enough to move NZD higher amidst a rush of money to the US. The JPY finally broke its 122.04 level and rushed higher with 124 the next big barrier. The Chinese are talking about more reform and the stock market rallied even further – up 4% in 2 days. The IMF gaven CNY its blessing again for SDR. The same IMF urged more from the BOJ for easing even as SPPI suggests stable inflation. The UK saw a surge in retail sales – driving up GBP against the EUR but not against the USD. The EM carry trade unwound with USD driving and with rates in the US watching the data and how Yellen et al. will respond. While the US data dump today is significant – the risk is on Friday and a big GDP 1Q revision lower – so everyone is gaming for the same story in FX. USD up to Wednesday and down the rest of the week with Greece and GDP reversals. Whether this all happens so smoothly or without a bigger accident seems to be the real issue. JPY is the one trade that merits attention for those searching for a trend rather than a bigger reversal – risk is for 127 by September.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Track.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE WEEKLY TRACK – INSIDE OUT

Summer markets began last week – low volume, erratic moves, low conviction, steady thematic fears. Greece and China remain at the forefront of risks. Deflation in Europe and lift-off by the FOMC have less power than in January while oil’s bounce and gold’s lackluster response to the USD correction leave the months ahead uncertain as to big trends. Everyone is gaming for the inside track or to get outside rather than in. The Greeks are trying to renegotiate their debt obligations starting with the warning that they can’t pay without borrowing more. The votes across Europe this weekend show the political divisions and will make the pain of any deal more difficult as the anti-austerity parties won in Spain and Duda’s victory in Poland highlights that growth isn’t enough – with more inward looking, domestically focused politics ahead. This old world of European politic bleeds into Asia and the US first in trade, second in deflationary economics and third by social unrest. The risks for the rest of the world are about capital and the flight of money to safety has benefited the US more than it should. This leaves the growth and potential for the rest of the world at risk into the summer ahead. The role of China in helping to offset the flows is clear and dependent on its own inward looking focus – witness the Bain study on China and the super capital surplus. The role of China in being a major provider of global capital should not be taken too lightly – perhaps the FOMC should take note.

THOUGHT PIECE
Track.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

RISING YIELDS AND RISING CORRELATION IN MAJOR BOND MARKETS – END OF CYCLE OR CORRECTION?

European bond yields have risen following the lead of US treasuries Yield curves are steepening despite minimal inflation A return to the natural rate of interest seems unlikely Over-indebtedness will stifle GDP growth and yields will fall

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH APRIL IDEA DINNER – GREASE

Last week, Track hosted its April Idea Dinner, which brought together an assortment of traders, analysts, and fund managers. As far as the conversation was concerned, “Grease” was the word. Those present debated the future of the homonymic Hellenic Republic—Greece was seen on increasingly slippery ground in the European community, a volatile situation with an increasingly probability of igniting into a Grexit (or “Grexident”, as one participant termed the possibility of an accidental Greek exit). “Grease” continued to be the word as participants debated the future and impact of global crude markets, the lack of sufficient lubrication to guarantee liquidity in the event of an ETF crisis, and the oily quagmire the ECB finds itself in. This report summarizes the themes, trades, and fears discussed at the dinner.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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